Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

283
FXUS64 KLUB 180432
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1032 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1026 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

 - Strong, westerly winds today with areas of blowing dust on the
   Caprock and well above normal high temperatures.

 - Below freezing temperatures are expected Saturday evening
   through Tuesday morning.

 - Light snow accumulations possible for the far SW Panhandle and
   northern South Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 547 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

The cold front is making its way through the area and winds have
fallen below warning and advisory criteria. Therefore, these two
products will be allowed to expire at 6pm CST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

West winds have cranked up across the forecast area this afternoon,
particularly across the far southern Panhandle where strongest mid-
level winds are mixing to the surface. However, a cold front that
signals the initial shot of modified arctic air into the forecast
area, is moving southward through the western Panhandle and the
weaker surface pressure gradient in the vicinity of the front should
help with a decrease in wind speeds as the front moves into forecast
area this afternoon. The focus then shifts to the cold air moving in
behind the late day and evening cold front. This first shot will not
be the coldest of the next few days, but it is certainly strong
enough to drop temperatures back below normal, especially so for
daytime highs Saturday. On the back of the development of broad
cyclonic flow over almost the entirety of the CONUS this cold air
will spill down the High Plains and deepen through the day.
Insolation will try to work to warm the air mass, although that will
be shortened across the northern part of the forecast area as an
upper level short wave trough moving southeastward toward the
forecast area potentially with some low level frontogenetical forcing
as well results in increasing cloud cover Saturday afternoon and
increasing, but fairly small precipitation chances. NBM has come in
too warm for the scenario with a nod to the colder MOS numbers
favored for tomorrow`s highs resulting in a narrower diurnal
temperature range north relative to that across the south. As just
mentioned the forcing also brings with it a chance for some light
precipitation to develop across the northwestern quadrant mid to
late afternoon. Progged soundings and forecast surface temperatures
favor snow, but will keep chances in the 20-30 percent range with a
dusting the likely outcome for any locations that receive
snowfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

The much anticipated Arctic cold front remains expected to push
through the area by Saturday, with a deep upper trough approaching
Saturday night. While forcing parameters remain relatively strong
and omegas generally lie within the snow growth layer, the overall
moisture looks generally to be lacking for any significant
snowfall. Deterministic QPF average over the far SW Panhandle
remains only around 0.03". Even with the cold temperatures and
aforementioned forcing potentially driving up SLRs, even with a
20:1 ratio at the highest model QPFs, anything greater than one
inch of accumulation will be a stretch. Cold temperatures will
persist into Tuesday morning. Combined with gusty southeasterly
and northeasterly winds on Monday and Tuesday mornings
respectively, wind chills below zero appear likely, especially
for the far SW Panhandle and northern South Plains which may
eventually merit advisories. Another deep, positively tilted upper
trough will track across the region on Tuesday, however at this
time much of the moisture looks to remain off to the southeast of
the CWA. A more zonal flow develops by Wednesday, finally
bringing a reprieve from the cold temperatures. After a trough on
Thursday, long-range guidance indicates a warmup into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Turbulence aloft should taper off toward sunrise
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1026 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

A complex frontal boundary has largely stalled between KPVW and
KLBB in a rather unexpected fashion resulting in a delayed shift
to northerly winds. Still, we expect the frontal surge to get
moving again shortly. Conditions should remain VFR tonight and
much of the day tomorrow before MVFR stratus moves in from the
north behind a secondary surge of a colder low-level airmass
Saturday evening.


&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...26