Lubbock, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

414
FXUS64 KLUB 211123
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
523 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 520 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

  - Near freezing temperatures tonight across portions of the far
    southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains.

  - Warm, above normal temperatures this weekend in the 70s.

  - A cold front Sunday night will bring high temperatures back to
    normal in the 50s to 60s on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Upper level ridging will deepen over the Rockies today with
northwesterly flow aloft as the upper low over the Great Lakes
swings into the Mid-Atlantic. A weak shortwave in the 850mb flow
will bring a shallow backdoor front through the forecast area.
Despite the front, temperatures will remain near normal for this
time of year with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds will
rotate clockwise to the northeast with the passing frontal boundary
and remain light. The surface high will dig southward into the
Southern Plains by the late evening hours as winds become light and
variable. High cirrus will filter in overnight tonight with
temperatures dropping into the 30s. A few areas will approach
freezing or slightly below, especially across the far southwest
Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 234 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

The warming trend will continue Friday and into the weekend with
pleasant conditions. The passing ridge will give way to some high
clouds Friday with the return of southerly surface winds and
continued near normal temperatures in the 60s. Flow aloft will
become more zonal through the weekend as the jet stream associated
with the cyclone over the Pacific Northwest begins to stretch across
the CONUS. This increased westerly flow aloft will help give way to
daily surface troughing and slightly breezy warm downsloping surface
winds. Thus, highs will warm to above normal into the 70s. An upper
shortwave across the Upper Rockies and into the Northern Plains
Sunday, along with the strengthening jet stream will give way to a
lee low developing in Wyoming and diving southeast across the Plains
Sunday night into Monday. Thus, a shallow cold front will move south
across the forecast area Monday morning. In the wake of the front
will be a cooler Canadian airmass bringing 15 to 20 degree colder
highs Monday ranging in the 50s to lower 60s. A quick return to warm
downsloping southwesterly surface flow will make the cooler airmass
short-lived. However, another frontal boundary may be in store for
later next week as the cyclone over the Pacific Northwest ejects
eastward into an open wave by mid-week. Model solutions vary with
the progression of this wave and trends in timing, strength and
moisture potential will continue to be assessed with additional
model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions with a weak front bringing northeast winds this
morning. Winds will continue to swing clockwise and remain around
or below 5 knots this evening and overnight. High clouds will
filter in from the west during the evening hours.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11